Stock market risk while still in the release process
Ice
recently wrote the stock market a little, for two reasons:
Firstly, I was the general trend now is to analyze, trend once inferred, will not repeat .
I had the most concern, is the least optimistic about the stock market in June.
5 12 am, in my circumstances, even the thousand points are difficult to access (12 May 3600, when multi-point), has shown a heavy sense of its own stock. If the Government can not continue to provide new favorable policies, the stock market may be down to the release of kinetic energy, bottom again. the following judgments: 1. more difficult for the stock market stock market is likely to month hh A break in June 3000. I also wrote a , the time may be ahead. . %), and other means to create the illusion of demand in order to attract capital to enter, pushing up prices worsen the people's livelihood situation, I once again turning their attention to the real estate field.
stock market, the housing market is the people's livelihood.
now , and then make a point of the stock market:
First, the recent sudden interest rate increase is likely.
10 times since the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio, raising interest rates after 6 degrees this year, the central bank has raised the deposit 5 reserve ratio, the most recent one was June 7 the central bank decided to raise the deposit-taking financial institutions of RMB deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point, on June 15 and 25, respectively, by 0.5 percentage points contribution (financial institutions in quake-hit legal temporarily increase), but it did not raise interest rates. Now, the deposit reserve rate has reached a record high of 17.5%.
in the Development and Reform Commission on June 19 evening notice increased oil prices and electricity prices after the inflationary pressures will increase, the central bank is likely to suddenly raise interest rates. Although interest rates are not an effective means of curbing inflation, but interest rates are correct to a certain extent, negative interest rates and inflation expectations, and interest rates to tackle inflation is considered the most effective and direct selection. Moreover, a few days ago, the Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in New York, in order to deal with increased fuel prices will fuel inflation situation,Discount UGG boots, the central bank may be to develop that if the reports are true, which in itself can be regarded as a signal to raise interest rates soon.
second stage of the stock market is still in a weak shock.
very pessimistic in the stock market in A shares under the 2700 break, when I write The dropped at this stage, the next, down the kinetic energy will be gradually weakened, and gradually phased into the shock consolidation process, maintain 2500 to 3500 to determine the shock interval. This process continued for some time before finding a new breakthrough in the direction of mm to again issued a document of the time. words, the stock market is a dilemma:
if to a substantial decline in capital could take advantage of cheap bargain hunting (June 24, Academy of Social Sciences published the report of the experts, Zhang said, China's capital market has been as high as 1.75 the amount of hot money trillion), equivalent to Chinese investors in the West do the wedding dress of hot money and vested interests. Once the hot money collected in the low enough chips, about China's stock market will make China's stock market became even hot money wantonly plundering of Chinese investors in China economic tool. Once the hot money profits,Bailey UGG boots, China's stock market will fall into the more tragic, while those who pay only the ordinary investors. If we take into account the country of corrupt elements, and the plundering of other powerful vested interests, the majority of investors may be subject to two forces of double exploitation. The influx of hot money is closely related to corruption itself. under capital of RMB is still not freely convertible under the vast majority of , it must trade through false, false equity injection, use of false personal donation of foreign exchange accounts,bailey UGG boots, debt settlement and other illegal means after the change of use, there is no collusion is difficult to accomplish.
if the stock market to rise, authorities fear the market rally old trouble will be guilty of: they worried that the birth part of the purchasing power of the rising stock market, increasing inflation pressure. On the other hand, they worry about the hot money profits reduce the time cost of short-term profit opportunities that hot money, safely climb down.
Therefore, whether up or down, at this stage, have made things difficult for the departments concerned. Of course, they want the stock market remains unchanged at the current point is impossible. The forces of China's stock market in terms of short,UGG boots clearance, 6 month (can be extended to In early July) Zapan this time almost the only rhythm, because the distance of the Olympic Games approaching in late July, the Government will give the market stability function is bound to intervene in the stock market. Because the government, is a major event in the Olympic Games event! Meanwhile, July's CPI increase over the same period of last year's large base will be reduced.
Therefore, short can only be completed by mid-July in the cleansing, in the low collection of chips, then, such as the Olympics approaches, pull l wave of market, a short walk through the Olympic Games. not only politically correct, but also in economic access to benefits. Therefore, in my earlier analysis that June is a very difficult month of the stock market .7 .7 early may also do so slowly getting better until late January. But, do not place too much hope. the so-called market in 2007 Olympic Games in advance the end of a. First, because the size of the non-lifting of the ban, an increase of the market sell-off. On the other hand, the domestic outside the economic situation facing numerous difficulties. If you still insist that the Chinese stock market, China's economic fundamentals have not change, can only be regarded deceive ourselves. and in the A shares can only be harvested is the resources to the
So, I always emphasize that stock market itself, the establishment of a fair system is far from important. With a fair system protection, stock market investors to the equitable sharing of benefits. Otherwise, the average investor never be more powerful players in fish object.
Again, since it has been to such an extent, remember: the flat state of mind, caring for your family, worry about their work, in order to avoid the stock market after the quilt, and even their own careers, family, health, quilt together. as it is more loss big up?
on June 27, 2008 am
Link: Analysis from the point of view of inflation trends
A Share Link: A stock analysis from the international trend
Game links: the possibility of the stock market in June hit a new low of increased
link: to control inflation rather than price pressure should pressure the stock market
Links: bull mask
executives cash tear link: How will the recent stock market to go (now until the end of June)
Links: A shares may be reversed when? (March 23)
No comments:
Post a Comment